From 2030

"To manage systemic risk you must take a systemic perspective".

Steve Waygood, Chief Responsible

Investment Officer, Aviva Investors

The year is 2030. Fifteen years ago, in 2015, the world signed off on a set of Global Goals. The Goals were worthy but deemed to be too complex, abstract, and expensive, so governments and companies continued with business as usual.

GDP initially continued to grow around the world, but came at the expense of our natural systems – oceans acidified; fish stocks plummeted; soils became depleted and crops struggled. So-called 'green' growth focused on carbon alone, and resulted in 'green grabs' of land, pushing people off their land and permanently harming biodiversity. Poorer communities, who depend on their local environment for their livelihoods, migrated in search of opportunities but found that richer countries were also facing stagnation, jobless growth, and rising inequality.

Governments and businesses were blind to the compounding risks because their performance metrics were narrowly focused and they could not work together on mutually beneficial and practical solutions. Investors were slow to identify devaluing assets and emerging risks. The price of key commodities became more volatile, insurance costs rocketed and capital markets were unpredictable. The cost of taking action escalated and undermined economic growth. Poorer groups bore the brunt of inaction, but declining natural systems and rising inequality impacted everyone.

Civil society was not able to engage, and civil disobedience intensified as the global stability that all relied upon broke down.